The $1.5 Trillion Reality Check
AI fever has largely transitioned from a stock market spectacle to a sober bond market reality. While equity valuations initially captured the imagination, the physical build-out of artificial intelligence is now demanding a different kind of fuel: debt. In 2025 alone, hyperscalers like Oracle and Meta have issued approximately $121 billion in new debt to finance the massive data centers required to power the next generation of computing.
This is just the beginning. Analysts from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan project that the technology sector will need to raise as much as $1.5 trillion over the next few years to fund this infrastructure arms race. The narrative has shifted from software scalability to the hard costs of steel, concrete, and megawatts. As these corporations pivot from cash-flow funding to debt financing, they are reshaping the global credit landscape, turning AI infrastructure into the new heavy industry.
Fractures in the Foundation
The sheer velocity of this issuance is beginning to cause indigestion in public markets. We are observing early signs of volatility as investors question the long-term payoff of these capital-intensive projects. Oracle, for instance, has seen its credit default swaps (CDS)—the cost to insure against default—spike to levels not seen since 2009. This widening of spreads indicates that the market is moving from a “Risk-On” euphoria to a more cautious assessment of execution risk.
Furthermore, fears of an infrastructure “glut” are emerging. With banks like the Bank of England warning of financial stability risks and major asset managers cautioning against “irrational exuberance,” the window for easy public capital is closing. In response, borrowers are increasingly turning to complex financial engineering, including private credit and asset-backed securities (ABS), to keep liabilities off their balance sheets. The reliance on these “circular deals” suggests that the easy money era for AI expansion is over.
The Bond Capital View: Financing the Physical Layer
While public markets react to volatility with fear, Bond Capital views this shift through the lens of fundamental asset value. The physical build-out of AI requires massive capital, and while equity grabs headlines, debt finances the steel and concrete. When public markets retreat due to macro-jitteriness, it creates a vacuum that disciplined private capital must fill.
We understand that data centers are not just technology plays; they are complex real estate and infrastructure projects. In an environment where public spreads are widening and bank terms are becoming restrictive, private credit offers the certainty and flexibility required to complete these multi-year builds. Bond Capital focuses on the tangible assets underpinning the hype, ensuring that capital is deployed where it creates lasting infrastructure value, regardless of daily stock market fluctuations.
